Poker Strategy: High-stakes hand analysis

Poker Strategy: High-stakes hand analysis

Hand history:

GGPoker, No Limit Holdem - $200/$400 - 3 players

S Nikiforov (BTN): $ 82,201 (206 bb)

Linus Loeliger (SB): $40,000 (100 bb)

Bjorn Li (BB): $93,109 (233bb)

Pre-Flop: ($600)
S Nikiforov (BTN) raises to $900, Linus Loeliger (SB) raises to $4,400, Bjorn Li (BB) folds, S Nikiforov (BTN) raises to $9,900, Linus Loeliger (SB) calls $5,500

Flop: ($20,200) K♥ 9♥ 8♥ (2 players)
Linus Loeliger (SB) checks, S Nikiforov (BTN) checks

Turn: ($20,200) T♥ (2 players)
Linus Loeliger (SB) checks, S Nikiforov (BTN) bets $6,668, Linus Loeliger (SB) calls $6,668

River: ($33,536) J♦ (2 players)

Linus Loeliger (SB) checks, S Nikiforov (BTN) bets $65,433 (all-in), Linus Loeliger (SB) calls $22,632 (all-in)

Total pot: $78,800

Pre-flop analysis

Note that we are three-handed; at these stakes, the rake is much less significant. These two factors have a massive impact on pre-flop ranges. Generally, broader ranges and loose calls are expected compared to low-stakes, 6-max games.

S Nikiforov from the BTN opens 2,25bb with A♣ T♦. Linus Loeliger from the SB responds with a 3-bet to 11bb with K♣ Q♣ and Bjorn Li folds. So far, very standard play by all the players.

S Nikiforov decides to 4-bet to 24,75bb, a very reasonable play with appropriate sizing. He must mix in some 4-bet bluffs to complete his value hands, such as QQ, KK and AA. The main 4-bet bluff would be AK here, but to be balanced, cover various boards when called and block some of the value hands of the 3-bettor. Every now and then, we should mix some off-suit broadways such as KQo, AQo, AJo, etc. and some holdings such as A5s, A8s, etc. Also, the value part could be widened with hands like TT, JJ, etc. While a hand such as AQo would also be a great candidate to call, ATo is clearly too weak to continue, so an occasional 4-bet bluff is a great play. The rest of the time, it should be folded.

Back to Linus, facing a 4-bet out of position is not ideal with such a dominated hand like KQs. However, when your opponent is a great player capable of 4-bet bluffing the correct frequencies in this situation, you simply cannot fold KQs. (In most low-stakes games, this hand would want to fold pure, as the majority of the pool is missing the required amount of bluffs to make the call profitable)

That being said, all the pre-flop action is considered standard play by both players.

Flop

The flop gets a lot more interesting, bringing a monotone K98 board, giving the top pair to Linus, and a lot of headaches to Nikiforov. It goes check-check. Checking here by Linus is the standard play. We don’t want to (and need to) develop a donking range in this situation.

However, Nikiforov’s decision is a bit harder. In a lower stake environment, he might get away by betting range with a small sizing. Solvers suggest mainly betting 1/10 of the pot and occasionally a 1/4, with a low checking frequency. Which hands are not incentivized to bet here? For instance, QQ-JJ-type hands, K9s, etc. Hands that have some showdown value but are not interested in growing the pot. Other hands that want to pot control could be hands like AKo, AQo, AJo and ATo with a flush draw, especially if the lower card is a heart (♥). It would be disastrous to get check-raised with that type of extra EQ. The rest of these bluff hands are in a tough spot anyways. They might be ahead with ace-high, but it will be difficult to realize their EQ starting by checking back on the flop. So, we should mainly lean towards betting, but a check-back is also a viable strategy in this environment.

Turn

The turn card is also exciting, bringing a fourth flush card and some possible straights. In this situation, a weak top pair is not interested in growing the pot since it has little value and no need to protect the hand, either. So, in Linus’ shoes, most top pairs will be checking again, giving space for protection bets and bluffs with hands that require that, such as a lower flush or a set.

Nikiforov has a more complex decision again. He made a second pair, which might be ahead of some of the SB range but still behind a big part of it. The Russian could be betting into the stronger hand or get bluffed off his hand right on this street. To get into a showdown, he will have difficulty calling on the river „blindly” (after checking back the turn). All in all, he probably has a better chance to charge (or fold out) some hands from the SB range and check back on safe runouts. Or, in case he thinks behind, he will need some good candidates for bluffing the river.

The action goes 1/3 pot delayed c-bet by Nikiforov and a call by Linus. Size-wise, he could go even smaller, especially with the specific combo he had.

Now Linus is in a tough spot, as he could be already drawing dead or way behind with very little equity. Even though he is extremely capable of protecting his ranges, he has checked twice, and a significant portion of his continuing range will be top-pair. So, this will be a marginal, close to 0EV call by him unless he thinks Nikiforov is over-bluffing this spot.

River

Now onto the river:

Honestly, the J♦ didn’t change much. Some straights completed, but in a four-flush board, it’s less relevant. Linus has very little interest in leading out here, and he eventually decides to check.

With a fourth pair, Nikiforov, on such a connected board, knows he cannot win at the showdown. You might ask, what hands would you like to turn into a bluff in such a situation? Well, you need to search for some blockers. You cannot block a flush because it would mean you also have one. You could target straights, sets and two-pairs, which hands will have a tough time finding the call. AT is a great candidate, as it blocks AQ for the straight, pocket TT for the set and some two pair hands such as KT, JT or T9 that Linus might consider calling with. Eventually, Nikiforov decides to go all-in, roughly for 2/3 pots.

Now the decision is on Linus. He would have a clear call with a flush as we saw the bluffs BTN should have. How about a straight? Well, this combo doesn’t block BTN’s bluffs. Moreover, K♣Q♣  blocks some of the values from Nikiforov, such as Q♥Q♣, A♥Q♣, etc. Besides that, Linus needs to call $22,632 to win $78,800. So he needs roughly 29% against Nikiforov to make a break-even call. From another point of view, Linus has to defend around half of his range, and straights are definitely part of it. So even he needs to call some sets and two pairs to comply with this requisite with a low frequency.

Solver solution to the river calling range (rough approximation)

Eventually, one of the best players nowadays makes the call and scoops a 200bb pot with his holding.

Showdown:
S Nikiforov (BTN) shows A♣ T♦ (a pair of Tens)
Linus Loeliger (SB) shows K♣ Q♣ (straight, Nine to King)

Linus Loeliger (SB) wins $78,800

Would you find a call in such a marginal spot against the most challenging opponents?

That’s it for today, guys! Good luck at the tables!