Poker Strategy: Three tips how to exploit your opponent in poker!
Nowadays, it is easy to study poker since there is an enormous amount of online poker content in video and written formats. In addition, there are poker solvers, programs that show you theoretically optimal plays. However, there is more edge to be gained if you don't listen to these given pieces of advice. In this article, we'll explore three exploits you should do if you want to add some extra bucks to your winrate.
The most prominent winning players are not always playing perfectly, and they are right about it. A game theory optimal (GTO) play that solvers provide us nowadays is zero EV plays. To make it short, the strategy we can learn from them is to be balanced and unexploitable in every situation. Meaning that whatever our opponent does, it's indifferent; they cannot win against us. Of course, this doesn't work in practice because humans won't ever be able to copy the whole complexity of what a program can provide. The good news is that we don't even need to try to repeat that strategy. The reason is that a zero EV game on our opponents' side will also mean a zero EV game on our side. So, on the one hand, we might study these strategies to avoid getting run over and, on the other hand, to understand how we need to differ from the optimal approach according to our opponents' tendencies.
The pool under bluffs
Not surprisingly, the first statement we can make about the poker community is that, in general, we miss bluffing the optimal frequencies. However, this is very broad; some players understand why and how to, and some simply like to bluff more. Also, there are situations where it's straightforward to find bluffs, while others are quite challenging because of the runout, etc.
This leads to the consequence that we must assume that Villain under bluffs the spot in a regular situation. If you have data, reads or anything else that proves otherwise, follow the evidence and act accordingly. If there is no such thing in your hand, you need to think twice if you want to make that river call, for example.
So the conclusion is if the pool under bluffs, you need to overfold. If you know the correct frequencies and the threshold hands you should call in theory, you need to ask yourself if that will be the adequate answer to your opponent's action. Or you need to tighten up and fold more of (or all) your marginal hands.
The pool overcalls
The following statement is also a generalization, so remember that it's just a general assumption when talking about the player pool of low and mid-stakes. How do you know that your opponent overcalls? Well, you'll need data on him, or you'll need to pay attention to showdowns. If there are hands that he should have folded in another street, or his went-to-showdown (wtsd) number is very high, etc., you can assume that your opponent falls into the category.
Your basic adjustment should be to bluff less in these spots (and increase your thin-value bets simultaneously).
Often you can find even more sophisticated strategies to exploit your opponents. Still, the complexity of various streets and possible scenarios are way too immense to summarize in an article like this.
Target a group of hands with your bet size
Let me give you an example that works well for both bluffing and value betting. First, consider the hand groups you'd like to target with your bet.
For the sake of simplification and better understanding, let's say that you are on the river with a hand that cannot win at showdown (has zero showdown value). To bluff successfully, you need to figure out what type of hands your opponent might fold, and then you'll need to define to what bet size you think he'll fold. For example, you have J-high and target Q- and K-high hands. In this case, probably a smaller size will work perfectly. While in another occasion, you think that most of your opponent's range consists of two pairs and strong hands. You'll need to bet a lot bigger to make them fold such good hands.
Remember that the situation and the runout might not be optimal for bluffing. For instance, when all the draws are missed by the river, it's improbable to make somebody fold a strong two-pair, regardless of your sizing.
In the second example, let's see the value betting part. Do you think your opponent is capable of bluff-catching you with a weak top pair even if you size big? Then go ahead and try to find the biggest sizing he might call. Or do you target all of Villain's 2nd and 3rd pairs? You might go for a smaller sizing to achieve that goal.
Keep in mind that this is not a theoretically sound approach. By this, you are adjusting to the fact that players are altering from the optimal strategy. It can lead to huge errors if you choose a strategy (and sizing) that makes very little sense. If you are unsure or play in a tough environment, it's always better to stick to standard plays.
Conclusion
You need to understand that GTO plays leave money on the table. The best players of each stake are not trying to mimic a theoretically optimal play in each situation. Instead, to increase their winrates, they find ways to exploit their opponents, and you should do that too. In this article, we discussed three tips that are very basic exploits of the current player pool on low and mid stakes. Generally speaking, you always want to do the opposite of what others do. If they don't bluff enough, don't try to catch them with marginal hands. If they love to call more than the optimal, bluff less and value bet more. You can play with your bet sizes as well.
Only keep in mind once you alter from the theoretically optimal play, you open yourself for exploitation, too. So take every piece of information with a grain of salt.
Good luck in exploring!
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