Turn bet sizing: How to simplify it?

If we stated that choosing the flop sizing is way more complex than preflop, the same is true concerning flop and turn. The number of possible scenarios is multiplied by so many that we need to continue establishing basic principles so as not to get overwhelmed by the complexity of turns. In this article, we’ll discuss the governing factors of our bet sizes and the exact bet sizes to use in certain spots.

Due to the possible lines arriving at the turn, position pairs, turn cards, etc., we must establish a simplified strategy that can be applied, even when we are out of position in a BvB situation, in a CO vs BB turn delayed c-bet spot or in a double barrelling opportunity, etc.

An excellent starting point is to examine your value hands for betting and what size they would benefit the most. As your value hands will guide your strategy and define the optimal bet sizes, the bluffs only „come along”, they don’t govern the bet sizes at all. Some of your strongest hands might want to overbet, some very good hands might want to bet just big, and some mediocre hands prefer to check.

Limit your sizes to one or a maximum of two distinct categories to keep it simple. In position, usually, it’s a good idea to bet big (66-80%) or huge (overbet). If your hand is too mediocre, it probably isn’t worth reopening the action for a small (25-40%) sizing, and EQ realization becomes more important by checking back.

Out of position, the situation is a bit more complex. In this spot, more hands could also benefit from introducing a small sizing (blocking). Besides that, we keep using our big sizing of 66-80%.

It is crucial to understand that range composition plays a key factor in which size we want to use. If our opponent’s range is condensed, we use big sizes to put the majority of middling hands into a tough spot. While our opponent’s range is polar, we tend to use small sizes. There is no need for extra pressure; the weakest hands will fold anyway, and the strongest will come along no matter our sizing. Turning these ideas inside-out, when our range is more polar, we tend to use bigger sizes, and when our range is more condensed (wide range containing lots of medium-strength hands), we prefer to use smaller bets.

Except for some rare occasions, we almost always want a checking range on the turn. Our betting frequency will depend greatly on the turn card itself and how ranges got narrowed by betting on previous streets. If we did bet on the flop and our opponent just called, our range becomes more polar while her range becomes more condensed. Adding any turn card into the picture will affect how favourable the spot became to each participant.

When the turn card is unfavourable to the aggressor, there will be more frequent checks in her strategy and on the contrary, an excellent turn card might allow a high (or even range) betting frequency.

A small sizing is more common out of position because a block bet can be a better option than checking. While in position, EQ realization is guaranteed for the next street; thus, we’re less incentivized to reopen the action with mediocre hands.

The two most common spots using small bets on the turn are double barrels and delayed c-bets (both out of position), with a somewhat mediocre hand. Usually, you would check these types of hands back when in position; unfortunately, OOP must include them in the betting range as well, when we see that EQ realization requires that.

Usually, we’re betting big in favourable spots when we can build our strategy around powerful value hands but not exclusively nutted hands. Such spots occur when the turn card „helps” our opponent’s range.

For example, she checks back on the flop, but the turn card heavily hits that check backing range. Let’s say it’s BTN vs BB, the flop is J♦️T♦️2♠️ and the action goes check-check. The turn is the A♥️, giving multiple new top pairs that are included in BTN’s flop checkbacks. As for our turn probes, we probably only want to use big sizes (or blocking).

Another situation when it’s a good idea to use a big size is delayed c-betting in position. You are not incentivized to reopen action IP with mediocre hands. Thus, you’ll use a polarized, big-bet strategy instead. For instance, BTN vs BB spot where the flop is A♠K♣4♦️ and the action goes check-check. On a brick turn like a 6♥️, you can go ahead and bet big with your strong hands (and bluffs).

Last but not least, turn barreling is another spot to use big bets. Typically, you should opt to bet 66-80% in the cases mentioned above; namely, the turn card mitigates nut advantage, and Villain’s capped range becomes uncapped again.

Using the overbet size on the turn is a classic spot where we maintain a considerable nut advantage by the turn. Usually, we already have a significant nut advantage on the flop (especially after Villain caps her range by only check-calling), followed by a blank turn.

Spots that involve overbetting turns are turn barreling on brick turn cards. For example, in position on the following board:  Q♣️T♦️2♠️ 7♠️.

Turn probe is another situation where we might introduce overbetting since we gain the nut advantage in most spots when our opponents check back on the flop.

Delayed c-betting out of position with the nut advantage is also a great spot to include overbets in our repertoire. OOP, we’ll find ourselves in spots where we must frequently check on various flops. When the IP player checks back, we are good to go and leverage our nut advantage on the turn by betting huge.

So, we’ve discussed the main elements of our bet sizes on the turn. Generally, you should simplify your strategy to use one or a maximum of two bet sizes at a time. In position, we tend to use big sizes with a polarized range since we are not incentivized to reopen action with the middle of our range. We need to protect our ranges from being out of position; that’s why a lot of checking and blockbeting is introduced. We’ve also listed the most common spots, where to use small (25-40%), big (60-88%) and huge (125%+) sizes.

Study them carefully, and as they make sense to you, you’ll be able to utilize them at the tables!