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GTO Wizard AI vs GPT-5: General AI Still Falls Behind in Poker

A new benchmark shows GTO Wizard AI outperforming GPT-5 and other models in poker. AIVAT-based results highlight the gap between general and specialized AI.
author-picture Admin - 2026. April 20.

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GTO Wizard AI is a modern poker-specific AI agent developed to power the GTO Wizard platform. The technology originally launched under the name Ruse AI, created in Canada by Marc-Antoine Provost and Philippe Beardsell, before being integrated into GTO Wizard in 2023.

Unlike earlier-generation poker bots—such as the 2018 ACPC champion Slumbot—this model does not rely on precomputed strategies. Instead, it:

  • trained against itself over hundreds of millions of hands,
  • continuously optimized decisions based on expected value (EV),
  • and solves each situation in real time.

This approach is based on deep reinforcement learning, allowing the AI to determine optimal decisions within seconds for any given scenario.

Dominant Performance: Results vs Slumbot

The capabilities of GTO Wizard AI were tested in a 150,000-hand heads-up match against Slumbot.

Result: +19.4 bb/100 win rate

This is an exceptionally strong outcome. At $50/$100 stakes, this translates to approximately $19.4 profit per hand on average over 100 hands, which—depending on game speed—can scale to several thousand dollars per hour.

General AI vs Poker-Specific Models

The following results come from one of the first comprehensive benchmarks directly comparing:

  • large language models (LLMs), and
  • poker-optimized AI systems

The conclusions are clear:

  • General models perform well in reasoning and language tasks,
  • but they remain significantly behind poker-specific systems in strategic decision-making.

It is worth noting, however, that GPT models already outperform earlier-generation bots such as Slumbot.

GTO Wizard AI Results vs Other Models

  • GPT-5.3 – +16 bb/100
  • GPT-5.4 – +17.8 bb/100
  • Claude Opus 4.6 – +20.4 bb/100
  • Gemini 3.1 Pro – +30.8 bb/100
  • Grok 4 – +60 bb/100

Removing Variance: How AIVAT Works

One of poker’s defining characteristics is variance—the fact that luck can heavily influence short-term results. Traditionally, hundreds of thousands of hands are required to draw reliable conclusions.

This is where AIVAT (Action-Informed Value Assessment Tool) comes in.

AIVAT assigns a theoretical “expected” outcome to each decision point and compares it to the actual result. Rather than measuring profit alone, it evaluates how much a player or model deviates from the optimal expected value in each situation.

As a result:

  • the impact of luck is significantly reduced,
  • reliable conclusions can be drawn from far fewer hands,
  • and a variance-adjusted win rate can be calculated.

This shifts the focus from short-term outcomes to decision quality.

Conclusion

The data paints a clear picture:

General-purpose AI models are not yet able to compete with systems specifically designed for poker—and the gap is substantial.

Current trends suggest that specialized AI will continue to hold a strong advantage in environments where decision-making requires precise, mathematically grounded optimization.

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