GGPoker’s bold move to double its flagship GGMasters guarantee to $1 million has met with mixed results. While the tournament remains overall profitable, it is now consistently failing to cover its ambitious prize pool promise—a trend that raises questions about its sustainability in the quieter summer months.
(Data and analysis based in part on reporting from PokerIndustry PRO.)
Why Did GGPoker Double the Guarantee?
For nearly five years, GGMasters maintained a stable $500,000 guarantee and routinely hit that target. Heading into 2024, participation was on the rise. The last two $500k editions—both Anniversary events—attracted over 5,000 players and prize pools exceeding $725,000. Confident in this upward trend, GGPoker raised the guarantee to $1 million in March 2024.
The timing was striking: the announcement came just after the planned GGMasters Anniversary Edition was canceled due to technical issues. But GGPoker insisted the $1M increase wasn't compensation—it had already planned the change.
The New Challenge: Hitting $1 Million Every Week
The new guarantee requires roughly 7,247 entries per week at the $150 buy-in. That’s a sharp jump from the 3,624 needed at the old $500k level.
The debut $1 million edition on March 9 was a success, drawing 8,352 players and creating a prize pool of over $1.15 million—beating even PokerStars’ Sunday Million that night. But this strong start didn't last. In fact, of the 16 editions held since the boost, 9 have missed their guarantee, creating repeated overlays that GGPoker had to cover.
The past four Sundays have all ended in overlays. The worst shortfalls came in early June, with back-to-back overlays of about $90,000 each.
Summer Slump Hits All Operators
It’s worth noting that online poker traffic typically dips in summer. GGPoker isn't alone in struggling: even PokerStars has scaled back its iconic Sunday Million. On June 15, PokerStars ran it as a phased PKO with a reduced $750,000 guarantee, and even that event ended with an overlay.
So while GGMasters’ missed guarantees look dramatic on paper, they’re also part of a broader seasonal downturn.
Profit Despite Overlays
Interestingly, despite these overlays, GGMasters remains profitable for GGPoker. Across 16 $1 million editions, the tournament has paid out $16.4 million in prizes and attracted nearly 116,000 entries. Total overlays reached about $434,000—but the operator still netted an estimated profit of nearly $1 million thanks to collected rake.
Here’s how the numbers break down:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Number of GGMasters editions with $1M guarantee | 16 |
| Total player entries across these editions | 115,942 |
| Total prize money awarded | $16.4 million |
| Total overlays covered by GGPoker | $433,926 |
| Total rake collected by GGPoker | ~ $1.4 million |
| Estimated net profit (after overlays) | ~ $957,000 |
Why Stick With the $1 Million Guarantee?
Why not just lower the target? History suggests GGPoker prefers to maintain ambitious guarantees even through short-term pain. When GGMasters launched in 2020 with a $250k guarantee, it repeatedly overlaid as the guarantee was raised to $500k—but eventually stabilized.
GGPoker may take the same approach now, treating the $1 million figure as an investment in branding and player loyalty. The company has said the boosted guarantee is not necessarily temporary but will depend on player support. If participation rebounds after summer, the seven-figure prize pool could become a permanent fixture.
How It Compares to PokerStars’ Sunday Million
While often compared, GGMasters and the Sunday Million differ in important ways:
- GGMasters: $150 buy-in, freezeout format (no re-entries), weekly $1M guarantee.
- Sunday Million: $109 buy-in, usually a PKO with multiple re-entries, format changes week to week.
PokerStars has also struggled to consistently hit its $1 million target recently, skipping some weeks entirely or reducing guarantees to $750,000.
The Road Ahead
Whether GGPoker sticks with the $1 million GGMasters guarantee will depend on its long-term strategy and player support. For now, despite the overlays, the tournament remains a signature offering that underscores GGPoker’s willingness to invest in big-ticket events, even in tough market conditions.
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